ट्रंप vs. पॉवेल: ब्याजदरों की 政治नीति

जब डोनल्ड ट्रंप 2-3 प्रतिशत की कटौती मांगते हैं, तो वह सिर्फ़ पॉलिसी सुझाव ही नहीं होता।यह ‘आर्थिक पृष्ठभूमि’ में मनोरंजन होता है। मुझे, ‘पाइथन’और ‘ब्लुमबर्ग’टर्मिनल मेंज़िएवसुईके,इस सिनेमा के पहलेदेखा हुआ।

दवश्‍य: “कोई मुद्रासफलता,अर्थव्‍यवस्‍था मज़बूत—फिर क्‍यों?” लेकिन- मुद्रासफलता 0%नहीं; ~3%है,और ‘कोर PCE’लक्ष्‍य सेऊपर है। इसके ‘अधिक’खड़खड़!

सच्‍चईगणित:उछलनगण (Hype)

2-3%कटऑफ़से \(80B/वर्षबचत? आइएगणना: -वर्तमान Fed Funds Rate: ~5.25% -3%घट (1): ~2.25% -US Debt: ~\)34T -वार्षिकबचत: ~$1T (80B×10)

can you really cut so fast with sticky inflation & rising deficits? Only if ready to ride the ‘black swan’ train—which I’m not.

markets are more rational than politicians.

every time Trump calls for cuts, bond yields dip slightly—then rebound when reality hits. Why? because markets price in credibility. in Q1 2024, Treasury yields spiked after his post—not due to recession fear but due to distrust in policy discipline. i’ve built models detecting sentiment shifts from social media signals—and trust me, ‘real social’ posts from former presidents don’t move my algorithm… unless backed by data.

Data Over Drama: What We Should Watch Instead

instead of chasing political headlines about rate cuts, focus on:

• core CPI (trimmed mean)
• jobless claims trend (4-week moving average)
• yield curve slope (10y–2y spread)
• fed dot plot expectations (next FOMC meeting)

these are my real-time inputs—my algorithm doesn’t care if trump called powell “too late.” it only cares if data says ‘cut.’ a nd right now? the signal is mixed—but leaning toward hold.

Final Thought: When Politics Meets Finance — Stay Calm & Code On

e was le taux des intérêts? The meme-worthy quote from today wasn’t “Cut rates!” It was “No more nonsense!” — which sounds like code for “don’t mess with my base support.” That said, as someone who survived three bear markets using risk controls and backtesting… I’ll take quiet data over loud noise any day. The next move isn’t determined by Twitter threads—it’s buried in spreadsheets.